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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the other's positions."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."