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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from Washington follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.